This market research report was originally published at the Yole Group’s website. It is reprinted here with the permission of the Yole Group.
After the worst downturn of the last 15 years ever, the memory market will enter a new growth phase.
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For the full year 2022:
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DRAM and NAND revenues decreased to ~US$79.7 billion and ~US$58.7 billion, respectively.
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NOR flash declined 8% YoY to US$3.2 billion.
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Global memory revenue is expected to grow from US$144 billion in 2022 to a new record-high of over US$200 billion by 2025.
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Amid escalating trade-war tension, Chinese companies are still in the game.
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Technology trends: hybrid bonding is key for next-generation 3D NAND and HBM . By 2030, DRAM is poised to become 3D.
Over the past several quarters, the memory markets have faced the most dramatic downturn of the last 15 years. DRAM and NAND prices have fallen 57% and 55%, respectively, since Q3-2021. The results for the full year 2022 were as follows: DRAM and NAND revenues decreased to ~US$79.7 billion (-15% YoY) and ~US$58.7 billion (-12% YoY), respectively; NOR flash declined 8% YoY to US$3.2 billion.
“The most severe drop started in the final weeks of Q2-2022 when a perfect storm of demand-side developments including global conflicts, high inflation, China COVID-19 lockdowns, etc. crashed into the memory markets.”
Simone Bertolazzi, Ph.D.
Principal Technology and Market Analyst, Memory, Yole Intelligence (part of the Yole Group)
Production cuts have set up suppliers to reach a market balance by the end of 2023. However, the financial losses incurred so far have been massive, and a recovery time longer than usual will be needed before suppliers increase their investments again. As such, 2024 and 2025 will be marked by undersupply and climbing prices, and revenues are expected to soar: after declining to US$42 billion for DRAM (-47% YoY) and US$37 billion for NAND (-37% YoY) in 2023, combined memory revenues are expected to grow to a new record-high of over US$200 billion by 2025.
In this context, Yole Intelligence releases its annual technology & market report: Status of the Memory Industry 2023. In this 2023 edition, the market research and strategy consulting company provides an in-depth analysis with a focus on hybrid bonding for next-generation 3D NAND, DRAM, and HBM technologies. The memory team updates on the challenges and prospects for the transition from planar to monolithic 3D DRAM. A detailed 2022 financial analysis of IDM memory companies, including Samsung, SK hynix, Kioxia, Western Digital, Micron, and Solidigm, is also supplied.
In addition, Yole Intelligence‘s analysts deliver an update on the Chinese memory business: China’s reactions to the October-2022 US export controls, technology roadmaps for YMTC and CXMT, recent investments, and players’ dynamics. More information is available on yolegroup.com.
From a Chinese perspective and due to the commercial restrictions set in October 2022 by the U.S. DoC , the outlook for the ramp-up of memory production has become uncertain, and combined wafer capacities for both leading memory companies, YMTC and CXMT, are likely to be limited to ~180kWpm in the next five years.
China has reacted promptly to the restrictions. Chinese memory companies, supported by the Chinese government, re-aligned their strategy…
Since Q1-2023, YMTC has considerably intensified its efforts to work with Chinese equipment vendors – among which is Naura Technology – through a not-so-visible project code-named “Wudangshan” and received funding – of the order of US $7 billion – from its state-backed investors.
A Bloomberg article published on April 20th, 2023, introduced the rumor that CXMT is seeking an IPO at a valuation of more than US$14 billion. For a six-year-old company, this is an astonishing figure, but this should be put in the context of the global memory industry, where memory capital expenditures by international suppliers can easily exceed single-digit billion-dollar amounts over a 2-year period.
“Although the future of China’s memory industry remains uncertain, what is clear is that memory will continue to be a strategic priority for the Chinese semiconductor ecosystem,” asserts Simone Bertolazzi. “China will do everything possible to keep their workhorse memory companies, YMTC and CXMT, alive and running”.
Yole Intelligence has been following the industry for a long time and updates its analyses daily with regular interactions with leading memory companies. Today, analysts invite you to follow the technologies, related devices, applications, and markets with:
- YMTC 232-layer 3D NAND memory: an unexpected technological breakthrough – The chronicles by Yole SystemPlus: Here.
An article written by Simone Bertolazzi and Belinda Dube from Yole SystemPlus, also part of the Yole Group.
