This market research report was originally published at the Yole Group’s website. It is reprinted here with the permission of the Yole Group.
Between 2018 and 2022, fifteen OEMs released car models with LiDAR. Now, a year on and with more new models scheduled for release, Yole Intelligence, part of Yole Group, presents an industry update in its LiDAR for Automotive Market and Technology report, 2023 edition.
Yole SystemPlus’s teardowns also provide valuable information on getting a complete and clear vision of LiDAR’s current technology status: LSLIDAR (LeiShen Intelligence) CH128X1 Hybrid-Solid State LiDAR– Velodyne Velarray H800 Lidar – Continental HFL110 3D Flash LiDAR for Toyota Mirai 2
Outline
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Two trends in the automotive industry: electrification and ADAS are shaping the course taken by OEMs,
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The global LiDAR market is expected to reach nearly $4.5 billion in 2028 and experience a CAGR of 55% from 2023,
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2022 was the first year LiDAR revenue in passenger cars exceeded LiDAR revenue in robotaxis,
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A region’s supply chain remains local except at the component level.
There was a significant event in the global LiDAR market in 2022; this was the first time that the market for LiDAR in passenger cars was higher than that for robotaxis. The large gap in previous years had been closing, but 2022 marked a turning point.
The combined global LiDAR market in 2022 was worth $317 million and is expected to reach $4,477 million by 2028, with a CAGR of 55%. The largest growth will be in passenger and light commercial vehicles, from $169 million to $3,920 million (CAGR of 69%). Robotaxi LiDAR will experience a CAGR of 25%, growing from $147 million in 2022 to $557 million in 2028.
Yole Intelligence has been tracking 150 LiDAR design wins from 2018 to 2025 to compile its LiDAR for Automotive 2023 Market and Technology Report. The adoption of LiDAR has taken place in two waves, beginning with F-segment cars such as the Audi A8 or Mercedes S-Class, which are high price point and low volume vehicles. In parallel, China saw the first wave of Chinese OEMs implementing LiDAR in E-segment cars, which have a lower price point and higher volume market. The second wave began in 2022 as LiDAR reached D-segment, mid-end vehicles in China. These are produced in higher volumes and at a lower price point – almost half that of the F-segment vehicles.
There are two markets for LiDAR: China-only and the rest of the world. In the China-only market, more than 100 models will be released between 2023-2025 using local LiDAR suppliers such as Hesai, RoboSense, Innovusion, Huawei, and Livox.
The adoption rate in the rest of the world is much lower. Yole expects six to ten car models with LiDAR to be released by European OEMs in 2023 or soon after. It is even lower for the US, with three to five models expected to be released by U.S. OEMs. The numbers are equally limited for Japan and Korea.
The race for electrification
China has invested in vehicle electrification for more than twenty years. Government incentives to transition from ICE (Internal Combustion Engine) to electrified vehicles means that today, pure EV OEMs such as Nio, Xpeng, orArcfox, among others, can focus solely on the second significant trend in automotive, ADAS, and automated driving. Chinese OEMs can differentiate vehicle models with systems that add safety and autonomous features.
In addition to transitioning to EV production, many OEMs in China are changing to a centralized architecture whereby a large domain controller manages computing and processing and facilitates the fusion of data received from radar, camera, and LiDAR sensors.
In Europe and the U.S., electrification is still driven by regulations as well as incentives to OEMs and end users. Although some European and U.S. OEMs like Mercedes, Volvo, BMW, and Cadillac are implementing LiDAR in high-end vehicles, legislation that mandates that by 2035, all new cars sold in Europe must be fully electric is focusing vehicle manufacturers’ activities on electrification and the transition from ICE to EV.
The supply chain
In China, local OEMs are implementing LiDAR. While it is difficult for players from Europe or the U.S. to enter this market, it is also very difficult for Chinese suppliers to enter other markets due to geopolitical concerns and worries over supply reliability.
“On one hand, there are some large Tier 1 companies, such as Valeo, Continental, and Denso, that are making LiDAR, but it is only a small part of their revenue stream and takes place alongside radar, camera, and other activities. On the other hand, pure LiDAR players are emerging, such as Luminar, Innoviz, and Cepton, among many others, which are putting automotive at the center of their business model. That is a lot of risk for these small companies, and consolidation is expected in the near future.”
Pierrick Boulay
Senior Technology and Market Analyst, Photonics and Sensing Division, Yole Intelligence
Hesai and RoboSense are the two biggest Chinese LiDAR players and have many partnerships with local OEMs. The number of partnerships or design wins, however, does not reflect the market reality. Innovusion partnered only with Nio but was leading the market in 2022. RoboSense has partnerships with local OEMs, as well as Toyota and Lotus, but Hesai, whose partners include SAIC Motor, Li Auto, Lotus, Human Horizons, and Leapmotor, among others, is expected to ramp up production and lead the market with around 40% market share in 2023.
French Tier 1 LiDAR supplier Valeo has a mostly European, Japanese, and Korean customer base. Luminar’s partners are predominantly European, namely Volvo, Polestar, and Mercedes Benz. Israel’s Innoviz will supply BMW and VW, while in the U.S., Cepton will supply GM’s 2024 model.
The Chinese ecosystem does not extend to components. Teardowns on the LiDAR systems show that these are typically from Western companies, for example, ams-OSRAM, onsemi, NXP, and AMD, among others. A few Chinese device suppliers are in mass production for automotive LiDAR, but the majority are not yet in production for automotive-grade applications. New suppliers entering the automotive market will need to gain automotive qualification, gain customer trust, and become known to manufacturers.
